Finance

Financial projections, scenario modelling, and sensitivity analysis

System Configs

9

Battery + inverter combos

Tariffs

9

UK energy tariffs

Scenarios

3

Best / Likely / Worst

Projection

10-20yr

Financial models

Sensitivity

7

Variable categories

Portfolio

10-100

Homes modelled

Total CAPEX

Best£22,707
Likely£22,707
Worst£22,707

Payback Period

Best16m
Likely40m
Worst999m

10yr IRR

Best81.2%
Likely28.9%
Worst1000.0%

10yr NPV (8%)

Best£123,253
Likely£27,011
Worst-£33,195

Annual Net Revenue — Typical home revenue — RS-25 / 64kWh / single-phase

Best£22,559
Likely£7,550
Worst-£1,559

Status

Worst marginal

16–999 months (likely: 40)

Net Revenue Over Time

Annual net revenue across three scenarios

Cumulative Cash Flow

Running total of net revenue vs CAPEX

Gross Revenue

Total revenue before costs

Battery Capacity Remaining

Degradation impact over time

NPV at Various Discount Rates (20yr)

Discount RateBestLikelyWorst
5%£332,291£81,077-£41,826
8%£242,848£57,127-£37,829
10%£200,210£45,497-£35,852
12%£167,001£36,306-£34,265
15%£129,772£25,816-£32,421

Revenue reference notes

Revenue figures above are for the selected system configuration. Typical home revenue — RS-25 / 64kWh / single-phase: Agile Arbitrage £5,600, Saving Sessions £620, ENWL Flexibility (estimate) £310, SEG Export £380. Total: £7,670/yr (likely case).

The Beeches (proof of concept) — 192kWh 3-phase generates approximately 2× typical home revenue due to 3× battery capacity, a 96kW 3-phase inverter (vs 3.68kW single-phase limit), and a 50kW ENWL-approved export limit enabling multiple daily cycles.

Revenue varies by system size and phase. The Beeches is a 192kWh 3-phase installation. Typical single-phase homes generate approximately half this revenue.