Risk & Opportunities
Threat and opportunity identification, impact modelling, and scenario stress testing
Total Risks
48
8 high/critical
Avg Risk Score
7.7
Top: IOF tariff signup suspension
Total Opportunities
43
24 high/transformative
Expected Upside
£2,165,000
total annual
Net Position
£3,510,600
Net positive
Avg Opp Score
11.5
Top: Sodium-ion commercialisation
Risk Heat Map
48 risks plotted by probability and impact
Probability
Negligible
Minor
Moderate
Major
Transformative
Impact
Almost CLikelyPossibleUnlikelyVery Unl
Low
Medium
High
Critical
Opportunity Heat Map
43 opportunities plotted by probability and impact
Probability
Negligible
Minor
Moderate
Major
Transformative
Impact
Almost CLikelyPossibleUnlikelyVery Unl
Low
Medium
High
Transformative
Net Risk/Opportunity Position
Base case revenue, adjusted for risk impacts and opportunity uplifts
Net Position
£3,510,600
More upside than downside exposure
Risk/Opportunity Timeline
Gantt-style view showing when items are most likely to materialise (risks above, opportunities below)
Now+6mo+12mo+18mo+24mo+30mo+36mo
IOF rate reduction
IOF discontinuation
Agile price convergence
Export rate collapse
Saving Sessions cancelled
Tariff eligibility change
Standing charge increases
Installer capacity
Homeowner churn
Theft or vandalism
Property access issues
Homeowner switches supplier
Key person risk
Subcontractor failure
Wholesale price crash
ENWL reduced flexibility minimum
Warm Homes Plan battery inclusion
Stationary storage cost collapse
Octopus Agile arbitrage opportunity
Government battery storage incentive
Mandated new-build batteries
Carbon border adjustments
Local authority partnerships
Green mortgage products
BUS grant expansion
SaaS licensing
White-label hardware
Installer network
Data monetisation
Franchise model
Risks
Opportunities
Opacity = probability